EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 48.57% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.06 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Mar 21 when EUR/USD traded near 1.09, price has moved 0.27% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 19.55% lower than yesterday and 15.37% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.69% higher than yesterday and 13.36% higher from last week
US DOLLAR OUTLOOK – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD
U.S. dollar, via the DXY index, eases off multi-month highs as global yields soar
The spotlight this week will be the release of the March U.S. jobs report
This article explores the technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD
xauusd live prices,XAU USD | Gold US Dollar,
The recent gold run-up has stalled over the past few days with little fundamental news or activity to help guide the precious metal. US rate cuts are coming, probably in June, while the geopolitical backdrop remains uneasy. To make a move from the current levels, there needs to be a fundamental or technical driver to help break the current inertia.
Looking at the daily gold chart, a bullish technical pattern is nearly fully formed so a breakout is due soon. A Bullish Pennant pattern is a short-term consolidation pattern that is formed by support and resistance merging. As these two lines close, a breakout occurs. If this pattern plays out, the price of gold could move considerably higher.
Retail trader data 43.48% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.30 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 5.63% higher than yesterday and 4.33% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.76% lower than yesterday and 2.70% lower than last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Gold prices may continue to rise.
GOLD OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS
Declining real yields and souring risk sentiment supports gold. Fed speakers to come later toda
XAU/USD FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST Gold prices capitalized on the risk off mood across financial markets while receiving an additional boost from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last night. Tensions in the Middle East have been escalating playing into the hands of the safe haven yellow metal while US government bonds received a lift across the curve (decline in US Treasury yields). Consequently, real yields (refer to graphic below) are softening making the non-interest bearing asset more attractive to investors.
The Federal Reserve Chair signaled that the central bank is likely to keep interest rates on hold in November to gather more data and gauge the state of the US economy. That being said, there was no mention of being at the peak and that there could be scope for further monetary policy tightening if needed. From a more dovish perspective, he cited higher yields aided in keeping monetary policy conditions restrictive. Overall markets were expecting such guidance so no real surprises; however, money markets ‘dovishly’ repriced rate forecasts (see table below) with the first round of cuts expected around July as opposed to September prior to the speech.
IMPLIED FED FUNDS FUTURES
Gold has been considered a highly valuable commodity for millennia and the gold price is widely followed in financial markets around the world. Mostly quoted in US Dollars (XAU/USD), gold price tends to increase as stocks and bonds decline. The metal holds its value well, making it a reliable safe-haven. It’s traded constantly based on the intra-day spot rate. Improve your technical analysis of live gold prices with the real-time XAU/USD chart, and read our latest gold news, expert analysis and gold price forecast
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The Federal Reserve is almost certain to hold the benchmark federal funds rate steady today. But that doesn't mean economists and investors won't be paying attention.
Focus will be trained on officials’ latest economic projections, which indicates how FOMC participants see the economy performing through year end and, more importantly, in 2024.
With inflation concerns lingering and the economy showing resilience, what the Fed signals in its so-called dot plot of rate forecasts will be key.
Standard Chartered’s Englander looks for the FOMC to remove one of the expected rate cuts from its 2024 forecast. He predicts the Fed will implement a rate cut in the first quarter of next year as the U.S. economy slows.
Vanguard’s senior economist, Josh Hirt, believes the Fed won’t start cutting its target rate until the second half of 2024.
“The next battle for the Fed will be fought on the grounds of ‘higher for longer,’” Uruci said. “For this message, the cleanest communication strategy will be using the 2024 dots and pushing back cuts gradually as the data reveal that economic activity and the labor market remain resilient.”
Many economists anticipate that the economic outlook for next year might improve marginally. The Fed's projections for growth in gross domestic product are also expected to be revised up, while unemployment-rate forecasts are likely to be revised down from the June figures. June’s Summary of Economic Projections, for example, projected unemployment would rise to 4.1% by the end of the year. It was 3.8% in August, and it is likely the September projections will be lowered to less than 4%.
The Federal Open Market Committee will issue its statement at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference with Powell at 2:30 p.m.
It's Fed day.
The Federal Open Market Committee, which wraps its two-day meeting today, will issue its statement at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.
Disney told company executives in a memo Friday it plans on implementing a hiring freeze and anticipates staff reductions—making it the latest major company to cut jobs this year, as many employers fear rising inflation could slide the economy into recession.
Disney told executives it plans to implement “a targeted hiring freeze” and anticipates job cuts, according to CNBC, after reporting quarterly losses earlier this week, though it’s not clear how many employees will be affected by the changes.
Juul announced the layoffs, which are expected to affect roughly 30% of its workforce, the Wall Street Journal reported, as the embattled company secures additional funding from investors to avoid bankruptcy two months after it agreed to pay $438 million to settle a lawsuit from 33 states and Puerto Rico into claims the company marketed its products to teenagers, and as the company appeals the Food and Drug Administration’s ban on the sale of its vaporizers.
Barclays started laying off roughly 200 employees in its banking and trading departments this week, sources told Bloomberg, while Citigroup is cutting 50 trading employees, CNBC reported, following the lead of Goldman Sachs, SoftBank and Wells Fargo, which all implemented major job cuts earlier this year (Barclays and Citigroup did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Forbes).
Redfin announced in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing it would cut 13% of its staff (862 employees), while another 218 employees whose roles were eliminated will be given new positions in the company—its second round of layoffs in recent months following its decision to cut 8% of its staff in June as mortgage rates continued to climb, jumping to a 22-year high.
Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp parent company Meta, confirmed the social media company will lay off 13% of its workforce (11,000 employees) on Wednesday, blaming its low revenue on “macroeconomic downturn” and “increased competition”—making it one of the largest rounds of cuts for a major tech company so far this year, following a hiring freeze announced in September.
Salesforce cut fewer than 1,000 employees on Monday, a source familiar with the move told CNBC, and it’s reportedly planning to lay off roughly 2,500 of the company’s 72,223 employees (approximately 3.5% of its workforce, according to Pitchbook) for “performance issues,” Protocol reported, citing an industry source and a former employee.
Zendesk is planning to lay off roughly 350 employees, including 84 in California, SF Gate and the San Francisco Chronicle reported, citing a tweet from a member of San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors referencing the company’s filing of a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification notice filed last week (Zendesk did not immediately respond to a Forbes inquiry).
Online financial services company Chime will lay off 12% of its staff, with the cuts expected to affect 160 of the company’s 1,300 employees, a spokesperson told CNBC, as the San-Francisco-based online banking and financial services company attempts to recapitalize “regardless of market conditions,” according to an internal memo obtained by TechCrunch.
Rideshare giant Lyft will reportedly lay off 13% of its staff, according to a letter from company officials obtained by CNBC, with job cuts affecting approximately 650 employees (13% of its staff of roughly 5,000, not including its contracted drivers), marking the company’s second round of layoffs this year, after it laid off 60 workers in July (Lyft did not immediately respond to an inquiry from Forbes).
Stripe announced plans to cut 14% of its workforce (roughly 1,120 of its 8,000 positions as of October, according to PitchBook) as the online financial services company contends with “stubborn inflation, energy shocks, higher interest rates, reduced investment budgets and sparser startup funding,” after the company “overhired” and “underestimated both the likelihood and impact of a broader slowdown,” CEO Patrick Collison announced in a statement to employees.
Billionaire Elon Musk reportedly plans to cut roughly 50% of Twitter’s 7,500 employees, multiple outlets reported Thursday—one week after the world’s richest man took over the company, with previous reports indicating he could lay off 25% and as much as 75% of the workforce, although Musk has walked back on that original number.
In a blog post released Wednesday, Opendoor CEO Eric Wu blamed the company’s job cuts, which affect 18% of its workforce, on “the most challenging real estate market in 40 years” and a “need to adjust our business”—as the housing market continues to cool in the wake of rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s four rounds of interest rate hikes this year.
Upstart’s layoffs are expected to affect roughly 7% of the cloud-based AI lending company’s workforce, with cuts primarily among employees who work in loan applications, a spokesperson confirmed to Forbes, saying the move comes “given the challenging economy.”
Zillow, the Seattle-based online real estate company, plans to let go of 300 workers (roughly 5% of its nearly 5,800 employees), TechCrunch reported, nearly a year after it announced plans to lay off another 2,000 employees.
Seagate Technology CEO Dave Mosley said the cuts, estimated to affect 8% of the data storage company’s workforce, follow “global economic uncertainties” and reduced demand, as the company’s shares plummet to $53.69 from a peak of $117.67 in January.
Manufacturing giant Philips unveiled plans to lay off approximately 4,000 workers amid a “worsening macroeconomic environment,” with the cuts expected to affect more than 5% of the company’s workforce in both the Netherlands—where the company is based—and the United States.
