EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 48.57% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.06 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Mar 21 when EUR/USD traded near 1.09, price has moved 0.27% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 19.55% lower than yesterday and 15.37% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.69% higher than yesterday and 13.36% higher from last week
US DOLLAR OUTLOOK – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD
U.S. dollar, via the DXY index, eases off multi-month highs as global yields soar
The spotlight this week will be the release of the March U.S. jobs report
This article explores the technical outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD
xauusd live prices,XAU USD | Gold US Dollar,
The recent gold run-up has stalled over the past few days with little fundamental news or activity to help guide the precious metal. US rate cuts are coming, probably in June, while the geopolitical backdrop remains uneasy. To make a move from the current levels, there needs to be a fundamental or technical driver to help break the current inertia.
Looking at the daily gold chart, a bullish technical pattern is nearly fully formed so a breakout is due soon. A Bullish Pennant pattern is a short-term consolidation pattern that is formed by support and resistance merging. As these two lines close, a breakout occurs. If this pattern plays out, the price of gold could move considerably higher.
Retail trader data 43.48% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.30 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 5.63% higher than yesterday and 4.33% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.76% lower than yesterday and 2.70% lower than last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Gold prices may continue to rise.
GOLD OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS
Declining real yields and souring risk sentiment supports gold. Fed speakers to come later toda
XAU/USD FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST Gold prices capitalized on the risk off mood across financial markets while receiving an additional boost from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last night. Tensions in the Middle East have been escalating playing into the hands of the safe haven yellow metal while US government bonds received a lift across the curve (decline in US Treasury yields). Consequently, real yields (refer to graphic below) are softening making the non-interest bearing asset more attractive to investors.
The Federal Reserve Chair signaled that the central bank is likely to keep interest rates on hold in November to gather more data and gauge the state of the US economy. That being said, there was no mention of being at the peak and that there could be scope for further monetary policy tightening if needed. From a more dovish perspective, he cited higher yields aided in keeping monetary policy conditions restrictive. Overall markets were expecting such guidance so no real surprises; however, money markets ‘dovishly’ repriced rate forecasts (see table below) with the first round of cuts expected around July as opposed to September prior to the speech.
IMPLIED FED FUNDS FUTURES
Gold has been considered a highly valuable commodity for millennia and the gold price is widely followed in financial markets around the world. Mostly quoted in US Dollars (XAU/USD), gold price tends to increase as stocks and bonds decline. The metal holds its value well, making it a reliable safe-haven. It’s traded constantly based on the intra-day spot rate. Improve your technical analysis of live gold prices with the real-time XAU/USD chart, and read our latest gold news, expert analysis and gold price forecast
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The Federal Reserve is almost certain to hold the benchmark federal funds rate steady today. But that doesn't mean economists and investors won't be paying attention.
Focus will be trained on officials’ latest economic projections, which indicates how FOMC participants see the economy performing through year end and, more importantly, in 2024.
With inflation concerns lingering and the economy showing resilience, what the Fed signals in its so-called dot plot of rate forecasts will be key.
Standard Chartered’s Englander looks for the FOMC to remove one of the expected rate cuts from its 2024 forecast. He predicts the Fed will implement a rate cut in the first quarter of next year as the U.S. economy slows.
Vanguard’s senior economist, Josh Hirt, believes the Fed won’t start cutting its target rate until the second half of 2024.
“The next battle for the Fed will be fought on the grounds of ‘higher for longer,’” Uruci said. “For this message, the cleanest communication strategy will be using the 2024 dots and pushing back cuts gradually as the data reveal that economic activity and the labor market remain resilient.”
Many economists anticipate that the economic outlook for next year might improve marginally. The Fed's projections for growth in gross domestic product are also expected to be revised up, while unemployment-rate forecasts are likely to be revised down from the June figures. June’s Summary of Economic Projections, for example, projected unemployment would rise to 4.1% by the end of the year. It was 3.8% in August, and it is likely the September projections will be lowered to less than 4%.
The Federal Open Market Committee will issue its statement at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference with Powell at 2:30 p.m.
It's Fed day.
The Federal Open Market Committee, which wraps its two-day meeting today, will issue its statement at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.
Disney told company executives in a memo Friday it plans on implementing a hiring freeze and anticipates staff reductions—making it the latest major company to cut jobs this year, as many employers fear rising inflation could slide the economy into recession.
Disney told executives it plans to implement “a targeted hiring freeze” and anticipates job cuts, according to CNBC, after reporting quarterly losses earlier this week, though it’s not clear how many employees will be affected by the changes.
Juul announced the layoffs, which are expected to affect roughly 30% of its workforce, the Wall Street Journal reported, as the embattled company secures additional funding from investors to avoid bankruptcy two months after it agreed to pay $438 million to settle a lawsuit from 33 states and Puerto Rico into claims the company marketed its products to teenagers, and as the company appeals the Food and Drug Administration’s ban on the sale of its vaporizers.
Barclays started laying off roughly 200 employees in its banking and trading departments this week, sources told Bloomberg, while Citigroup is cutting 50 trading employees, CNBC reported, following the lead of Goldman Sachs, SoftBank and Wells Fargo, which all implemented major job cuts earlier this year (Barclays and Citigroup did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Forbes).
Redfin announced in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing it would cut 13% of its staff (862 employees), while another 218 employees whose roles were eliminated will be given new positions in the company—its second round of layoffs in recent months following its decision to cut 8% of its staff in June as mortgage rates continued to climb, jumping to a 22-year high.
Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp parent company Meta, confirmed the social media company will lay off 13% of its workforce (11,000 employees) on Wednesday, blaming its low revenue on “macroeconomic downturn” and “increased competition”—making it one of the largest rounds of cuts for a major tech company so far this year, following a hiring freeze announced in September.
Salesforce cut fewer than 1,000 employees on Monday, a source familiar with the move told CNBC, and it’s reportedly planning to lay off roughly 2,500 of the company’s 72,223 employees (approximately 3.5% of its workforce, according to Pitchbook) for “performance issues,” Protocol reported, citing an industry source and a former employee.
Zendesk is planning to lay off roughly 350 employees, including 84 in California, SF Gate and the San Francisco Chronicle reported, citing a tweet from a member of San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors referencing the company’s filing of a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification notice filed last week (Zendesk did not immediately respond to a Forbes inquiry).
Online financial services company Chime will lay off 12% of its staff, with the cuts expected to affect 160 of the company’s 1,300 employees, a spokesperson told CNBC, as the San-Francisco-based online banking and financial services company attempts to recapitalize “regardless of market conditions,” according to an internal memo obtained by TechCrunch.
Rideshare giant Lyft will reportedly lay off 13% of its staff, according to a letter from company officials obtained by CNBC, with job cuts affecting approximately 650 employees (13% of its staff of roughly 5,000, not including its contracted drivers), marking the company’s second round of layoffs this year, after it laid off 60 workers in July (Lyft did not immediately respond to an inquiry from Forbes).
Stripe announced plans to cut 14% of its workforce (roughly 1,120 of its 8,000 positions as of October, according to PitchBook) as the online financial services company contends with “stubborn inflation, energy shocks, higher interest rates, reduced investment budgets and sparser startup funding,” after the company “overhired” and “underestimated both the likelihood and impact of a broader slowdown,” CEO Patrick Collison announced in a statement to employees.
Billionaire Elon Musk reportedly plans to cut roughly 50% of Twitter’s 7,500 employees, multiple outlets reported Thursday—one week after the world’s richest man took over the company, with previous reports indicating he could lay off 25% and as much as 75% of the workforce, although Musk has walked back on that original number.
In a blog post released Wednesday, Opendoor CEO Eric Wu blamed the company’s job cuts, which affect 18% of its workforce, on “the most challenging real estate market in 40 years” and a “need to adjust our business”—as the housing market continues to cool in the wake of rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s four rounds of interest rate hikes this year.
Upstart’s layoffs are expected to affect roughly 7% of the cloud-based AI lending company’s workforce, with cuts primarily among employees who work in loan applications, a spokesperson confirmed to Forbes, saying the move comes “given the challenging economy.”
Zillow, the Seattle-based online real estate company, plans to let go of 300 workers (roughly 5% of its nearly 5,800 employees), TechCrunch reported, nearly a year after it announced plans to lay off another 2,000 employees.
Seagate Technology CEO Dave Mosley said the cuts, estimated to affect 8% of the data storage company’s workforce, follow “global economic uncertainties” and reduced demand, as the company’s shares plummet to $53.69 from a peak of $117.67 in January.
Manufacturing giant Philips unveiled plans to lay off approximately 4,000 workers amid a “worsening macroeconomic environment,” with the cuts expected to affect more than 5% of the company’s workforce in both the Netherlands—where the company is based—and the United States.
l analysts see an attractive entry point in Nike (NYSE:NKE) shares and believe the stock could eventually double in 2-3 years. With Nike shares trading...
Buying Puts (Long Puts)
Buying Puts (Long Puts)
If a call option gives the holder the right to purchase the underlying at a set price before the contract expires, a put option gives the holder the right to sell the underlying at a set price. This is a preferred strategy for traders who:
Are bearish on a particular stock, ETF, or index, but want to take on less risk than with a short-selling strategy
Want to utilize leverage to take advantage of falling prices
A put option works effectively in the exact opposite direction from the way a call option does, with the put option gaining value as the price of the underlying decreases. Though short-selling also allows a trader to profit from falling prices, the risk with a short position is unlimited because there is theoretically no limit to how high a price can rise. With a put option, if the underlying ends up higher than the option's strike price, the option will simply expire worthless.
Example
Say that you think the price of a stock is likely to decline from $60 to $50 or lower based on bad earnings, but you don't want to risk selling the stock short in case you are wrong. Instead, you can buy the $50 put for a premium of $2.00. If the stock does not fall below $50, or if indeed it rises, the most you will lose is the $2.00 premium.
However, if you are right and the stock drops all the way to $45, you would make $3 ($50 minus $45. less the $2 premium).
Risk/Reward
The potential loss on a long put is limited to the premium paid for the options. The maximum profit from the position is capped because the underlying price cannot drop below zero, but as with a long call option, the put option leverages the trader's return.
Buying Puts
Options are a form of derivative contract that gives buyers of the contracts (the option holders) the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell a security at a chosen price at some point in the future. Option buyers are charged an amount called a premium by the sellers for such a right. Should market prices be unfavorable for option holders, they will let the option expire worthless and not exercise this right, ensuring that potential losses are not higher than the premium. On the other hand, if the market moves in the direction that makes this right more valuable, it makes use of it.
Options are generally divided into "call" and "put" contracts. With a call option, the buyer of the contract purchases the right to buy the underlying asset in the future at a predetermined price, called exercise price or strike price. With a put option, the buyer acquires the right to sell the underlying asset in the future at the predetermined price.
Let's take a look at some basic strategies that a beginner investor can use with calls or puts to limit their risk. The first two involve using options to place a direction bet with a limited downside if the bet goes wrong. The others involve hedging strategies laid on top of existing positions.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Options trading may sound risky or complex for beginner investors, and so they often stay away.
Some basic strategies using options, however, can help a novice investor protect their downside and hedge market risk.
Here we look at four such strategies: long calls, long puts, covered calls, protective puts, and straddles.
Options trading can be complex, so be sure to understand the risks and rewards involved before diving in.
Buying Calls (Long Calls)
There are some advantages to trading options for those looking to make a directional bet in the market. If you think the price of an asset will rise, you can buy a call option using less capital than the asset itself. At the same time, if the price instead falls, your losses are limited to the premium paid for the options and no more. This could be a preferred strategy for traders who:
Are "bullish" or confident about a particular stock, exchange-traded fund (ETF), or index fund and want to limit risk
Want to utilize leverage to take advantage of rising prices
Options are essentially leveraged instruments in that they allow traders to amplify the potential upside benefit by using smaller amounts than would otherwise be required if trading the underlying asset itself. So, instead of laying out $10,000 to buy 100 shares of a $100 stock, you could hypothetically spend, say, $2,000 on a call contract with a strike price 10% higher than the current market price.
A standard equity option contract on a stock controls 100 shares of the underlying security.
Example
Suppose a trader wants to invest $5,000 in Apple (AAPL), trading at around $165 per share. With this amount, they can purchase 30 shares for $4,950. Suppose then that the price of the stock increases by 10% to $181.50 over the next month. Ignoring any brokerage commission or transaction fees, the trader’s portfolio will rise to $5,445, leaving the trader with a net dollar return of $495, or 10% on the capital invested.
Now, let's say a call option on the stock with a strike price of $165 that expires about a month from now costs $5.50 per share or $550 per contract. Given the trader's available investment budget, they can buy nine options for a cost of $4,950. Because the option contract controls 100 shares, the trader is effectively making a deal on 900 shares. If the stock price increases 10% to $181.50 at expiration, the option will expire in the money (ITM) and be worth $16.50 per share (for a $181.50 to $165 strike), or $14,850 on 900 shares. That's a net dollar return of $9,990, or 200% on the capital invested, a much larger return compared to trading the underlying asset directly.
Risk/Reward
The trader's potential loss from a long call is limited to the premium paid. Potential profit is unlimited because the option payoff will increase along with the underlying asset price until expiration, and there is theoretically no limit to how high it can go
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The global forex market is highly liquid; it runs 24 hours a day from Sunday night to Friday evening. Thus, traders can respond to market changes much quicker than in the traditional stock market.
Forex trading is like buying and selling other types of securities, with the difference that it’s always done in pairs. There are numerous ways to trade in Forex. That said, they all work under the same principle: you always buy one currency while simultaneously selling another.
As mentioned earlier, you can make a profit in a forex trade when the currency you buy moves up against the currency you sold.
In this article, we will take you through the basics of what is Forex trading.
We will compare the Pros and Cons of swing vs day trading, the benefits of Forex trading, and whether you can get rich by trading Forex.
Finally, we’ll tell you how you can choose the best Forex trading platform, the best forex broker to start trading Forex, and conclude with a forex glossary and beginner’s FAQs.
What is Forex Trading all about? – Forex (FX) trading, or foreign exchange trading, is the largest financial market in the world, with $6.6 trillion worth of FX transactions taking place daily. This averages out at $250 billion per hour worldwide.
In simple words, answering our primary question: “What is Forex Trading” – forex trading is the process of making a profit from buying one currency while simultaneously selling another.
In the past only large banks, financial institutions, and trading houses could actively trade in the forex marketplace. In recent years, however, online trading and increased access to financial service providers like sai and accessible trading platforms like MetaTrader 5 have made it easier than ever for novice retail investors to trade in Forex.
Fortunately, as an individual trader, you no longer need a large amount of capital to trade in FX. By using leverage from a regulated and trusted financial service provider, you can start forex trading with small amounts.
