ECB moving closer to a cut; BoE eyeing additional QE
Economic data coming out of the Eurozone in recent months has been rather poor but even though the ECB has still limited room to cut rates, it is generally not expected to make this move at the upcoming meeting. The BoE´s monetary policy decision is the source of more speculation this month as the minutes from the last meeting revealed that three MCP members expressed their support for additional QE.
Even though the majority of the analysts polled for the special forecast report expect the ECB to cut interest rates sometime this year, they rather do not see the central bank making this decision in March. "The markets are nervous about the recent elections results in Italy as well as about a possible QE decrease by the Fed so I do not think Mario would want to add fuel to the fire," Adam Narczewski suggests, while others point also to the successful announcement of the OMT as a factor reducing the need for a cut. Only Steve Ruffley sees the ECB bringing "rates to 0.5%, in line with that of the BOE" on March 7, as "the economic horizon for the EU remains very treacherous."
Attention will center on the ECB press conference following the interest rate announcement, during which president Mario Draghi might, in the opinion of Bill Hubard, "revise inflation projections to the downside." He is also likely to "try and balance between the current economic situation which is quite depressing, and the optimism for growth in H2 2013, coming now from higher business confidence, mostly in Germany," as Yohay Elam believes.
The outcome of the BoE´s March monetary policy meeting is less clear for the experts as the minutes from the January meeting surprised with the information that three out of the nine MPC members (including the governor Mervyn King) voted in favor of an additional expansion of the asset purchase program by £25 billion to £400 billion. "The downgrade by Moody's, together with the growing support for more QE and the lack of fiscal stimulus from the government will likely lead the MPC to action, even though the effects of QE on the economy are questionable," Yohay Elam predicts, but the majority of the economists polled believe the expansion could be carried out later in the year.
Should it nevertheless be implemented this month, the move would, in the opinion of Alberto Muñoz, "sink the pound," which would "probably plummet below 1.5000 against the greenback."
The BoE and the ECB will announce their monetary policy decisions on March 7 at 12:00 and 12:45 GMT, respectively.
