Talking Points:
- US Dollar Technical Strategy: Declining ATR into Resistance Is Main Worry
- US Dollar’s Biggest Technical Test for Now: April Highs
- Opening Range Breakout Would Offer Enticing Value Breakout/ Buy
Where are the Bulls going? What’s more, do they know something I don’t? The US Dollar has had an impressive May so far and is looking a lot like May 2015 where US Dollar bottomed only to move higher in a choppy fashion before trading at 14-year highs at the end of January.
Recently, we noted a strong bounce from the May 2015 low-day price range with the recently low. The force of the move of the May 14 zone aligns with the seasonal bias of US Dollar Bullishness along with the sentiment favor further upside. However, it’s important to take a look at the Fundamental picture as well.
In the chart above, you’ll note that the top line of the bearish channel currently looks to be holding the price down. The upper channel line aligns the lower-highs of April at 11,953 & 11,907 that are in focus.
In the chart above, you’ll note that the top line of the bearish channel currently looks to be holding the price down. The upper channel line aligns the lower-highs of April at 11,953 & 11,907 that are in focus.
The support worth watching comes from recent corrective higher-lows of 11,855 and 11,807 respectively. 11,807 was the Non-Farm Payroll low, and it appears a shift in the market toward favoring Dollar strength has taken hold from that day. A break below 11,855 would be disheartening for the bulls, but a break below 11,807 could shift the current narrative back toward favoring new 2016 lows
