RABI S0WING 0F PULSES INCREASED 15% AND 0VER ALL CHANA INCREASED BY 12% ALL INDIA AND IMP0RTED CHANA ALS0 WILL LASH MARKETS
Chana Surges To Record Level
Chana in 2016 touched low of 4,700, while jump to record level of 10,800. Chana prices started spiraling since February amid prospects of lower production due to lower acreage amid poor rainfall, which promoted stockists and traders to corner majority of stocks. Chana peaked Rs 10,800/100kg in October 20, 2016 when consumption usually remains at peak due to festival season like Navratri, Dussehra, Durga Pooja and most import Diwali. Supply of chana at peak consumption period was very tight due to slow selling by stockists and thin stocks. Further reports of delay in shipment from Australia also added fuel.The other reason, which was culprit behind rise in chana was uncertainty about crop numbers. The government estimated 2015-16 crop at 7.17 million tonnes, while Edelweiss Agri Research forecast crop at 5 million tonnes, while industry experts crop numbers were much lower than what was projected by government.
According to balance sheet drawn by Edelweiss total supply for 2016-17 (March-February), including opening stocks of 0.12 million tonnes will be around 5.3 million tonnes, almost in line with projected demand of 5.2 million tonnes, leaving ending stocks to fall to record low level of 0.10 million tonnes.
Roller Coaster Ride In Chana In November-DecemberChana price on October 20, 2016 touched a record level of Rs 10,800/100kg and thereafter witnessed roller coaster rise (see chart 1) due to slowdown demand against tight stocks in the country followed by delay in shipment from Australia on adverse weather condition.
Chana In Correction Mode; But Tight Supply May Provide SupportChana from the peak of Rs 10,800/100kg has corrected more than 30 percent at Rs 7,500/100Kg, but what next?
Chana supply from Australia has started and is rising week-on-week as Indian importers have contracted around 6-7 lakh tonnes, which are expected to reach by February. According to data compiled by commoditiescontrol around 3.58 lakh tonnes of chana, including 0.83 lakh tonnes in container and nearly 2.75 lakh tonnes in break bulk vessel arrived at Nhava Sheva and Mundra port.
Further higher sowing in the country has raised prospects of bumper production, which is likely to pressurize chana price in the near or long term. Chana may find some support for Makar Sankranti and Pongal demand, but overall outlook is not promising. Further chana price is stressed by cheaper substitute like pea (matar). Demand in processed chana (chana dal) is poor as peak consumption demand period is over.
