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6 Nov 2017

Saudi power struggle means oil prices will hit ‘$70 before $50,'

‘Panic’ could set in after Saudi purge nabs ‘Warren Buffett of the Middle East’ Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s sweeping purge over the weekend has left investors to ponder — among all sorts of other things — what the tightening of his grip on the Kingdom ultimately means for global markets.  Specifically, should the arrest of Prince al-Waleed bin Talal, the familiar face of Saudi Arabia’s global investment scene, be a concern for those holding stakes in companies linked to his Kingdom Holding firm 4280, -5.26% which was smacked with a double-digit drop when the news broke.  In our call of the day, United Securities head of equity research Joice Mathew told Bloomberg there’s “a good chance” Twitter TWTR, -2.64%  and Citigroup C, -0.86%  will get hammered in reaction to the news.  “In the absence of news or details on what kind of corruption this is, we’ll see some initial panic, that’s for sure,” Mathew said.  Al-Waleed, a Saudi royal with a vast fortune that puts him among the world’s richest men, is known as one of Citigroup’s biggest and most vocal shareholders. He also owns about 5% of Twitter’s outstanding shares, according to Bloomberg, and he’s a top investor in Apple.  Now, al-Waleed, who’s been called “the Warren Buffett of the Middle East,” faces laundering charges, a source told the Wall Street Journal.  President Donald Trump probably isn’t shedding a tear: So far, markets don’t appear to be all that concerned with what’
s happening over there, although the uncertainty has helped lift oil prices, which reached levels not seen since the summer of 2015. See: How history suggests the Saudi ‘Game of Thrones’ may keep going — in one chart  Key market gauges Oil CLZ7, +2.73%  is up, approaching $56 a barrel as investors gauge the Saudi news. The Dow DJIA, +0.04%    Nasdaq COMP, +0.12%   and S&P 500 SPX, +0.06%  have opened on the flat side. Gold GCZ7, +0.81%  is catching a slight lift.  Asia markets ADOW, -0.16%  closed flat to lower, though the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.49%  had a pretty good day. Europe SXXP, +0.13%  struggled. Bitcoin BTCUSD, -2.70%  hit a new high way up near $7,600, but has since come down quite a bit.  Read the Market Snapshot column for the latest. The buzz   A massive leak of data has revealed how the world’s super-rich move trillions of dollars in cash through offshore tax havens and has raised new questions about the finances of top members of Team Trump. Keep an eye out for what pops up next in the coming days. Check out: more about the Paradise Papers.  Amazon.com AMZN, +0.82%  is hammering away at the competition once again, lowering prices by as much as 9% in recent weeks on goods offered by third-party sellers. Just look for that “Discount provided by Amazon” tag. Merger talk is in the air for Monday. Sprint S, -11.47%  is taking a hit after announcing with T-Mobile TMUS, -5.92%  over the weekend that merger talks had ended. In the chip sector, Qualcomm QCOM, +0.86%  is up on a report that Broadcom AVGO, -0.97% could be planning an unsolicited takeover of its rival. And Marvell MRVL, +9.16%  is popping after reports late last week that it could combine operations with Cavium  CAVM, +9.64%  .  Rand Paul is still recovering from some pretty serious injuries after he got into a scrum with a neighbor in Bowling Green, Kentucky.  Earnings  Berkshire Hathaway  BRK.B, -0.25%  is under some pressure. It posted weaker-than-expected results late Friday that included a $1.4 billion loss in insurance underwriting. Things won’t slow down too much this week on the earnings front, with Disney DIS, +0.58%   , Snapchat parent Snap SNAP, -2.06%  , Nvidia NVDA, -0.46%  and some retailers headed our way.  Monday will bring CVS Health CVS, -2.84%  , Michael Kors KORS, +14.45%  , Priceline PCLN, -0.54%  , Etsy ETSY, +2.44%  and TripAdvisor TRIP, +0.55%  , all due after the close. Check out a preview of this week's earnings  The chart Margin debt hit an all-time high in September, a sign that investors are feeling frisky about the current state of things in this market. Yet records in margin tend to pop up around major market tops.  Callum Thomas of the Topdown Charts blog says, however, there’s perhaps a “more useful” way to look at it — margin acceleration, as shown in this chart: