SOYBEANS (March)
Yesterday’s Close: March soybeans finished the session up 7 cents, trading in a range of 9-1/4 cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 9,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Yesterday's export sales came in at 640,400 metric tons, this was within the expected range from 450,000-750,000 metric tons; last weeks read was 743,223 metric tons. Thursday's NOPA crush report came in at 163.11 million bushels, this was below the expected 165.511 million bushels. Nonetheless, it was a record for the month and cracked the top 10 on record. Weather continues to be a key catalyst in price action. The meal has been a leader on the back of those weather concerns as Argentina accounts for nearly half of world shipments. With a three-day weekend, we expect to see a gap come next week’s open.
Technicals: The market has taken advantage of the breakout above resistance at 1006, the buying accelerated and now has prices towards the top end of our next pocket which we have outlined as 1020-1027. If the bulls can achieve a conviction close above this level, there is not a lot from stopping it from extending towards 1044-½-1050-½. The funds have been reducing short positions for a while now and are likely net long, we should see that confirmed in this afternoons Commitment of Traders report. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 69.55, the highest read since July. Shorts have been swinging at a piñata and falling short while the bulls remain in full control.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1020-1027***, 1044 ½-1050 ½****
Support: 1013**, 1001-1006***, 986 ¼-989 ¾***
Yesterday’s Close: March soybeans finished the session up 7 cents, trading in a range of 9-1/4 cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 9,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Yesterday's export sales came in at 640,400 metric tons, this was within the expected range from 450,000-750,000 metric tons; last weeks read was 743,223 metric tons. Thursday's NOPA crush report came in at 163.11 million bushels, this was below the expected 165.511 million bushels. Nonetheless, it was a record for the month and cracked the top 10 on record. Weather continues to be a key catalyst in price action. The meal has been a leader on the back of those weather concerns as Argentina accounts for nearly half of world shipments. With a three-day weekend, we expect to see a gap come next week’s open.
Technicals: The market has taken advantage of the breakout above resistance at 1006, the buying accelerated and now has prices towards the top end of our next pocket which we have outlined as 1020-1027. If the bulls can achieve a conviction close above this level, there is not a lot from stopping it from extending towards 1044-½-1050-½. The funds have been reducing short positions for a while now and are likely net long, we should see that confirmed in this afternoons Commitment of Traders report. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 69.55, the highest read since July. Shorts have been swinging at a piñata and falling short while the bulls remain in full control.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1020-1027***, 1044 ½-1050 ½****
Support: 1013**, 1001-1006***, 986 ¼-989 ¾***
